Opposition journalist calls presidential daughter's party 'a family project'

Kazakh opposition journalist Sergei Duvanov has described Darigha Nazarbaeva's new Asar party as a "family project" to keep the Nazarbaevs in power, adding that he views the party's formation as the most significant event in Kazakh political life in recent months.

Duvanov's commentary appeared in the 14 February issue of the opposition weekly "Respublika Assandi Times."

Duvanov said Asar's main task at this point is to fill the parliament to be elected later this year with individuals loyal to the president and to overcome the opposition in a fair electoral fight.

Duvanov adding that this would result in the development of a legitimate political process in Kazakhstan -- and the opposition would no longer be able to explain its defeats by blaming them on illegal actions by authorities. Asar was registered in December. BB

Party of Kazakh president's daughter is project to hold on to power

BBC Monitoring
Source: Respublika Assandi Times, Almaty

The establishment of the Asar party by Kazakh President Nazarbayev's daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva was "a family project" to hold on to power, Sergey Duvanov, an opposition journalists, suggests. The setting up of the party was dictated by the need to keep power in the hands of the family by forcing all the opposition parties out of the political arena, he writes. The following is an excerpt from an article entitled "The manly action of Dariga Nazarbayeva", published by Kazakh newspaper Respublika Assandi Times on 13 February; Subheadings as published:

The establishment of the Asar party, undoubtedly, was the most significant event in the country's political life in recent months. It was not just the emergence of yet another party. The emergence of a daughter of the president [Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan], Dariga Nazarbayeva, in big politics as the leader of this party is a significant event that may lead to the birth of a new political figure having every reason to aspire to the presidential post.

Largely, the Asar party is a tool with the help of which it is proposed to make the president's daughter a "cool" and serious politician, to breathe new life into the withering pro-presidential parties by tying them to the chariot of the new party, to ensure the filling of the new parliament with people loyal to the president, and eventually, to fight the opposition in a legitimate political process.

The latter, it seems to me, should seriously concern Kazakhstan's opposition, who hitherto could justify its defeats referring to unlawful actions of the authorities. Under the circumstances, taking into consideration that the opposition is going through a serious crisis, the strong Asar party may outdo the opposition easily, and notably, in quite a fair manner, without using the notorious administrative resources. In this case there will be nothing for the opposition to appeal against, and it will have to explain its defeat with nothing other than its own weakness.

It is clear that this and, incidentally, the tasks mentioned above will depend on how significant the Asar party's success will be. So far, the work experience of the pro-government parties (Otan, Civic and Agrarian parties) has been not exactly successful, and thriving in complete ideological barrenness, they have proven their political incompetence. The presence of a member of the Family [of the president] in the new political project makes one expect that the Asar party will be the favourite brainchild of the authorities and, accordingly, will enjoy special privileges.

No that big shot

When attempts are being made to convince us that this is almost Dariga Nazarbayeva's personal initiative, that all this was impromptu, and that the president learned about it afterwards - this is, to put it mildly, craftiness. Big politics do not like impromptu actions, and any initiative not coordinated with political partners is punishable. Therefore, if the daughter is in the Asar party, then the father is also present there, but his presence is hidden! Asar is not a whim of the president's daughter, it is a project of the whole Family, dictated by the need for new methods of retaining power.

The emergence of the Asar party is the Kazakh authorities' (in this case the Family's) response to the challenge of the times to Kazakhstan's authoritarianism. In essence, the key task of this political project is to keep power in the hands of the Family. The key part in it is given to Dariga Nazarbayeva who, within the framework of this project, is to: a) create a serious political structure, a party that is capable of being a leading political subject of "a new political order (see below - author's note); b) change her status - i.e. to turn from just an influential daughter of the president into an independent, popular politician, playing (at least outwardly) her own game; c) being a leader, reach the level of politician No 2, and thus becoming a political reserve capable of taking her father's place anytime.

The president is not eternal, and moreover it is not ruled out that Kazakhgate might lead to a situation where it would be better for him to go into the background. In any case there will be a need for a very reliable successor. I think that his own daughter is the most optimum choice. If that is so, naturally she needs to become a big politician as soon as possible, enjoying authority and popularity, capable, if necessary, of not only succeeding the president, but also doing it properly with the observance of all the relevant political formalities.

[Passage omitted: repeat]

Asarization of parliament is a path to power

By what means Asar may become a leading political force in the life of the country is a separate topic. Well, it will! Looking at the developing ideological campaign in the media, the flexing of the party's muscles by recruiting personnel and the ever increasing activity of the Asar party, confidence in this is growing day by day. In essence, in building the Asar party, Dariga is repeating her own experience of creating Khabar. This is reminiscent of a method of Ivan the Terrible [Russian tsar], who, it is recalled, implementing a project entitled "Oprichnina" [political and administrative apparatus established by Ivan the Terrible], controlling only part of the state, soon took control of all the remaining parts, but on his own terms.

This is exactly the way Dariga Nazarbayeva built the Khabar media-empire. The news agency created by her gradually started to attract the best specialists from other channels, acquired the best technologies and obtained more budget financing. As a result Khabar became the main TV channel in the country, and then turned into a powerful media-holding.

It is clear that in order to make Khabar big and powerful, the efforts of the same Nazarbayeva were needed. Yet the significance of the victory fades as one becomes aware of the fact that the success was achieved not in a fierce competition between equal rivals, but it was achieved as a fully predictable result: in a country ruled by one person, and being his relative is the best guarantee of victory in any field.

So it is difficult to have doubts about Dariga Nazarbayeva's party becoming the most powerful and influential party. Also, the assurances that in the forthcoming elections Asar will win no fewer than half of the seats in parliament are not empty words. By this [statement] the Asar party gave away the authorities' tactical plans. The Asarization of parliament is not something desirable, but necessary. In order to become a recognized and influential politician, Nazarbayeva needs only to win a victory. This is one of the immediate conditions for Nazarbayeva's rise to power. And in this sense there is confidence that the result will be achieved at any cost.

The Asar party's victory in parliamentary elections will turn Dariga Nazarbayeva into a leader of the biggest parliamentary faction. And this is a direct path to the post of the Speaker of the Majlis, which, on the one hand, makes it possible to get to the very heart of political life, and on the other hand, under certain circumstances, to be in the president's chair. One may not go to parliament and may remain a party leader, leading one's own parliamentary faction and gaining political weight through initiating the adoption of laws popular in form and populist in essence. Say, initiating the adoption of laws on pension increases; the introduction of free travel by public transport; an increase in social payments for utilities and medical services; introduction of child benefits for up to three years and allowances for children under 18 will enable one to score serious points in the eyes of the electorate.

It is clear that parliament has already examined this whole lot of bills without Asar's participation since these issues were already put high on the agenda by life itself. Yet the whole craftiness is that all these will be presented as initiatives of the Asar party, which will make it possible for Dariga Nazarbayeva to claim credit for some more "specific steps". What people have been receiving from the hands of the abstract authorities, will now be presented as the services of the president's daughter.

Actually, there are various mechanisms of transferring power from the father to the daughter. It is difficult to say what particular mechanism the authorities will prefer. Most likely, this will certainly depend on the situation. That is why making guesses as to how it will happen is useless. This is of no interest to me personally. Something else is fundamentally important - the authorities have seriously started dealing with the problem of succession and are working out their political strategy on the basis of this.

[Passage omitted: the ideas announced by the Asar party are only populism]

For the right to serve the regime

The active participation of the opposition in the forthcoming parliamentary elections is more than problematic. Preparing for the elections, the Kazakh authorities, in an attempt to secure all guarantees, have adopted a new law on parties, making it difficult for opposition parties to get registration. As a result all opposition parties got outlawed, and so are not able to participate in elections on party lists.

Of modest and loyal parties only the Ak Zhol party [Bright Road] is able to compete with the Asar party. However, it is obvious that they are not equals in terms of strength. On the one hand the united efforts of a group of businessmen and officials [the Ak Zhol party], and on the other hand, the influence of the Family resources and, accordingly, the administrative resources of the government.

With the mentality of our people, not he who offers the best political programme wins in elections, but he who is a generous and caring sponsor whom the masses like wins in elections. In this sense it is difficult for the Ak Zhol party to confront the Asar party with its inexhaustible resources, influence and support from the authorities.

All these provide grounds for thinking that the parliamentary elections will be held under the sign of a fight between those who support the policy of President Nazarbayev and those who provide even greater support for that. This is the essence of a new political order that provides for the elimination from the fight those who do not agree with the president's policy.

It is expected that in the country's political life, confrontation between the opponents of the regime and its supporters will be replaced by struggle among the political forces loyal to the regime for the right to serve the existing regime.

[Passage to end omitted: many criticized the government]

RFE/RL, BBC Monitoring, Respublika Assandi Times. February 23, 2004