Энергетическая безопасность (двуязычная рубрика)

New US/Russian ties could end Caspian oil rivalry
A new spirit of collaboration between Moscow and Washington
Reuters English News Service, 26 November 2001

By Samantha SHIELDS

MOSCOW, Nov 26 (Reuters) - A new spirit of collaboration between Moscow and Washington in the wake of the September 11 attacks may end their traditional rivalry over how to pipe the Caspian Sea's vast oil reserves to markets, analysts said on Monday.

U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham arrives in Russia on Monday, officially to represent the government at a ceremony marking the completion of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) route from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea.

But the visit will also give him the chance to meet his Russian counterpart, Igor Yusufov, and further cement the cosy U.S.-Russian relations established at the summit between Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin.

"Better U.S-Russia relations mean the desirability or necessity of having pipelines that do not go through Russia is much reduced," said Stephen O'Sullivan, head of research at United Financial Group in Moscow.

"One of the main tenets of (former U.S. President Bill) Clinton's policy was energy independence for Central Asia and the Transcaucasus, so we saw a lot of American diplomatic push aimed at making sure pipelines out of Central Asia did not pass through Russian territory."

The CPC line, which Abraham will laud on Tuesday, carries oil from Kazakhstan 's huge Tengiz field to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk.

Sergei Glazer, chief strategist at Alfa Bank in London, said Russia and the Central Asian countries' roles as secure producers compared to Middle Eastern OPEC members could speed long-stalled Caspian agreements on status and territory.

"I think that we can now expect to see a more aligned position towards the development of oil reserves in the Caspian," he said.

The Caspian Sea, with reserves estimated at equivalent to those in Europe's North Sea, has yet to be divided between the five states surrounding it.

Tensions flared in July when an Iranian gunboat ordered an oil exploration ship, licensed to explore Azeri waters, out of what it regarded as the Iranian sector.

"But now we have a good political environment where we can go for some kind of comprehensive development of the reserves, which could be high enough to counterbalance OPEC countries and keep their influence under control," he said.

Russia's decision to cut fourth quarter crude exports by a paltry 50,000 barrels a day while delaying a decision on the first quarter of next year should also please the United States, analysts said.

"Of course it is not in U.S. interests for the oil price to collapse completely but they need somehow to maintain it at $20 or under so that consumer sectors will be happy and the prospect of economic recovery will increase," Glaser said.

Iran had been bidding to see oil move across its territory and a $3 billion U.S.-backed pipe from Azeri Capital Baku to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, bypassing Russia altogether, had been gaining support.

Some analysts said Baku-Ceyhan will be sidelined in favour of other secure routes through northern Russia, although others said it could still have a chance.

"It would not be a bad thing to have two export lines from the whole Caspian region - one to the Black Sea and one to the Mediterranean," O'Sullivan said.

Reuters English News Service, 26 November 2001