Islamic Studies
Asking for Holy War
Ruling out democracy results in militant Islamic opposition
By Ahmed RASHID in Tashkent and Dushanbe
For 10 years the region's leaders have ruled out democracy; the result:
an increasingly militant underground Islamic opposition.
AMONG THE BUREAUCRATS and diplomats who keep the wheels of government
turning in Central Asia's five republics, there has long been a taboo on even mild,
private criticism of the national leader. But with economic and political problems
mounting, the presidents of the five republics -- all of whom have ruled since
independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 -- can no longer count on uncritical loyalty.
"Central Asian leaders cannot face up to reality," says a
high-level government official from Uzbekistan.
Such bluntness is just the latest measure of the crisis in Central
Asia. Not one of the leaders -- Imamali Rakhmanov in Tajikistan, Saparmurad Niyazov in
Turkmenistan, Askar Akayev in Kirgyzstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev in Kazakhstan and Islam
Karimov in Uzbekistan -- allows political opposition. All five have extended their
presidencies indefinitely and made no room for advocates of economic or political reform.
Unfortunately, this is a time when leaders need solutions. The
republics that straddle the vast land mass between Russia and China face an overwhelming
mix of economic recession, militant Islamic fundamentalism, advances by Afghanistan's
Taliban and a new Russian leadership keen on reasserting hegemony in the region.
A Western diplomat in the region estimates unemployment to be 80% in
the Ferghana Valley, which straddles three countries and is the agricultural and
industrial heartland of Central Asia. Adds the Uzbek official: "Central Asian leaders
are overwhelmed and paralyzed by the problems they face."
By forcing all opposition underground into increasingly extremist
positions, the autocratic leaders have fostered an environment in which the population has
begun to embrace a volatile force: Islamic militancy.
Central Asia, with Afghanistan and Pakistan, has become a breeding
ground for extremist and terrorist groups and, with the threat from North Korea receding,
has become Asia's last bastion of terrorism. In the wake of the bombing of the USS Cole in
Yemen, Washington is again focused on Saudi terrorist Osama bin Laden, who from his base
in Afghanistan supports the Taliban and militants in Central Asia and beyond.
Uzbek President Islam Karimov faces the gravest threat. With a
population of 20 million and a moderately well-trained army, Uzbekistan is the region's
most powerful and populous state. It is being courted by the West for its strategic
location and its potential to stabilize the region and keep Russia out. But there are at
least three Islamic movements aiming to topple Karimov with a jihad, or holy war, and to
establish Islamic regimes in Central Asia.
This year and last, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan launched
guerrilla attacks inside Uzbekistan in a bid to set up bases in the Ferghana Valley and
topple Karimov. The Taliban have given sanctuary to 3,000 heavily armed fighters from the
IMU. In the middle of this year, the IMU fought pitched battles with the armed forces of
Kirgyzstan and Tajikistan in order to reach Uzbek territory from their Afghan bases.
"We have declared a jihad to create a religious government in Uzbekistan," IMU
leader Tahir Yuldeshev told the Voice of America from Afghanistan on October 7.
The IMU is bankrolled by Afghanistan's drugs trade and by bin Laden. It
recruits throughout the region, in Chechnya, and among Uighur Muslims >from the Chinese
region of Xinjiang. "The main objective of the IMU is to create an Islamic state
which could cause the break-up of Central Asia," Kirgyz Foreign Minister Murat
Imanaliev told the REVIEW.
Another underground Islamic group, the Hizb-ut-Tahrir, or Party of
Liberation, is reportedly as popular as the IMU. The group has growing support in
Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kirgyzstan, operating a highly secretive cell system that makes
it difficult for authorities to contain its spread. Its members have a vision of uniting
Central Asia in what group leaders call an Islamic caliphate -- a vision promoted on the
group's own Web site, www.hizb-ut-tahrir.org (see box below).
A third, even more extremist group, Hizbollah, or Party of God, follows
Saudi Arabia's strict Wahabbi sect, is funded by Saudi groups and is established in the
Ferghana Valley. (The group is not related to the Hizbollah of Lebanon.)
According to Western human-rights workers, some 5,000 IMU and
Hizb-ut-Tahrir supporters are in jail in Uzbekistan, and hundreds more in Tajikistan and
Kirgyzstan. But these harsh measures only add to public anger. "People are even
scared to go to the mosques now, in case they are picked up by police," says an Uzbek
shopkeeper.
This is a fear on which Islamic leaders capitalize. "We will
avenge those Muslims who have died in the prisons of this regime," IMU leader
Yuldeshev told Voice of America.
European countries, plus Nato, the United States, China and Turkey,
have supplied military and economic aid to prop up the regimes and combat Islamic
militancy. But in the U.S. case, many specialists argue that supporting the autocrats only
strengthens Islamic opposition. (In September, the U.S. Congress did, however, criticize
Central Asian leaders for human-rights abuses and failing to democratize.) Others say
autocratic rule will keep down Islamic militancy. Either way, the lack of choice and
underground nature of the opposition doesn't bode well for regional stability.
Only Allah Knows
The underground Islamic party Hizb-ut-Tahrir is so secretive and
decentralized that its leaders haven't revealed themselves even to their own supporters,
and only one member of each of the organization's five-man cells is in contact with a
member of another cell. A senior leader of the group, who said he heads activities in an
area comprising several thousand cells, spoke with REVIEW Senior Writer Ahmed Rashid on
condition that his name and the meeting's location not be revealed. Excerpts:
On the origins of the group
Hizb-ut-Tahrir was formed in Saudi Arabia as a pan-Islamic movement in
the 1950s. At that time we had a united plan with the Wahabbi movement, but we soon split
because Hizb-ut-Tahrir wanted to bring about sharia {Islamic religious law} in a peaceful
manner while the Wahabbis were extremists who wanted guerrilla war. Hizb-ut-Tahrir went
underground during Soviet times and many members were in Soviet prisons. But today we have
tens of thousands of members across Central Asia. We want to make a caliphate {Islamic
state} which will reunite all the Central Asian states. Hizb-ut-Tahrir wants a peaceful
jihad, but ultimately there will be war because repression by the Central Asian states is
so strong.
On relations with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan
The aims of the Hizb-ut-Tahrir and the IMU are for a caliphate in
Central Asia, but the ways to achieve it are different. The Hadith {sayings of the Prophet
Mohammed} says when the world ends there will be 73 Islamic movements and only one of them
will be right. Only Allah knows which movement will be right.
On women's rights, and the Taliban
Hizb-ut-Tahrir believes women must work and be educated but also wear
the hejab {the covering of the head but not the face}. We support the Taliban and many
Hizb-ut-Tahrir members have fled to safety in Afghanistan to escape the crackdown in
Central Asia. The Taliban have some good ideas. They want a pure Islamic state. The
difference between us is that we want a modern life here on earth, to create a heaven on
earth and also to prepare people to go to heaven in the afterlife; the Taliban only want
an afterlife.
On Osama bin Laden, and the U.S.
We have no special relationship with bin Laden, but he supports all
Islamic movements in Central Asia and he is very famous here for doing so. We are very
much opposed to the Jews and Israel -- we don't want to kill the Jews but they must leave
Central Asia. The United States is the enemy of Islam with the Jews.
On Uzbek President Islam Karimov
Karimov must choose between the Russians and Islam. But if Russian
troops enter Uzbekistan it will be good for Hizb-ut-Tahrir because it will expose
everybody and the war will begin. Karimov has no future there. There is too much
corruption and bad policy, no jobs, the economy is very bad, so there is a lot of anger
among the people. There are also many good people in Karimov's government, so there is an
opportunity to break the government from inside.
Far Eastern Economic Review, 9 November 2000
Far Eastern Economic Review, 9 November 2000
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