Alexei Arbatov

The latest events in Moscow mark a turnaround in the course of the Chechen epic. For the first time ever the Chechens have resorted to open terror in central Russia (the bombing of apartment buildings in Moscow and Volgodonsk was anonymous, and society has yet to see conclusive evidence of Chechens' being responsible for it). In Moscow, the terrorists acted openly with a strong kamikaze flavor. I very much fear that this could be the course the situation might take. Several dozen kamikaze terrorists who seized a cultural center in Moscow is just a drop in the bucket. In Chechnya, there are hundreds of young men who have grown up and been brought up in a war environment, who have known nothing but war, men with a warped psyche. Death to them is a commonplace thing while life, which has nothing worthwhile to offer, is of little value. They are ready to sacrifice this life for the sake of mythical symbols in which they trust absolutely.

It is not ruled out that the Moscow tragedy will prompt the Russian leadership to toughen its military policy in Chechnya, launch a crackdown and carry out some massive strikes and operations. The military, law enforcement, and society as a whole may in fact be prodding the ruling authorities in this direction. Yet, as the entire Chechen campaign shows, these tactics will not win the war. Its most probable outcome today is mass terror across the country.

Terror against civilians, of the kind we are now seeing in Israel (not hostage taking but regular bomb attacks), can paralyze Russia, cause mass panic, and bring about dire political consequences, including the introduction of a state of emergency. The situation is compounded by the fact that our law enforcement agencies and armed forces today are not ready to meet such a formidable challenge. I am sure that neither the military nor the law enforcers are in a position to deal with this Palestinian scenario. So, not only humanitarian but also military/political considerations dictate that everything must be done to avert this turn of events. Apart from other things, this scenario would have a fateful impact on the armed forces. The military will once again have to take part in combat operations in Chechnya, and should a state of emergency be imposed, also in enforcing emergency regulations. Amid mass terror and a military mobilization strain on the country, no one will of course remember about military reform or the fact that without the reform we will never get a viable, modern army capable of effectively ensuring the country's external security.

How to avoid a Palestinian scenario? There is only one option: by addressing the root causes of terrorism - that is to say, by working toward a political settlement in Chechnya. Of course, the settlement should be based on a number of principles that may not be subject to compromise. Yet it would be wrong to ignore political reality: Negotiations should be conducted only with those who are at war with us, not those whom we have placed in charge there and who will disappear the day after we pull out there.

Should a decision about such negotiations in principle be made and conditions for them begin to be worked out, this alone would diminish the basis for terrorism. Sure, the party of war within the Chechen armed opposition will not go away and could even try to scuttle the negotiations through terror. But dialogue with moderate leaders will help, through concerted efforts, to minimize this danger.

http://www.mn.ru/english/issue.php?2002-42-4