Opening the door to Gazprom
Kyrgyzstan inks a deal with Russia's Gazprom. Is Russian influence growing again in
Bishkek?
Hamid Toursunof
OSH, Kyrgyzstan--In what analysts are calling another signal of
Russia's attempts to restore its influence in Central Asia, Russian gas giant Gazprom has
signed an agreement with the government of Kyrgyzstan to explore and develop Kyrgyz oil
and gas fields and to assist in repairing and building gas pipelines.
While Kyrgyzstan does not possess significant gas and oil resources,
analysts say it could serve as a good transit country for reserves in neighboring
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan--all of which have large gas and oil deposits.
At the Bishkek press conference on 16 May announcing the deal, Gazprom
CEO Aleksey Miller said that Central Asian gas pipelines through Kyrgyzstan could provide
significant transport capabilities to neighboring countries.
In Kyrgyzstan, hopes were high that a deal with the state-owned Russian
gas monopoly would even out the country's tumultuous gas supply lines.
Kyrgyz Prime Minister Nikolai Tanaev--himself an ethnic Russian--said
that Kyrgyzstan would use the influence of Gazprom in the region to stabilize the natural
gas supply into Kyrgyzstan from Uzbekistan, Interfax reported.
Relations between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have suffered in recent
years due to periodic Uzbek gas supply cutoffs, prompted by Bishkek's inability to keep up
with its payments.
"Gazprom's presence in Kyrgyzstan will provide a stable supply of
gas to meet Kyrgyzstan's demands in 2003-2004," Miller pledged.
However, analysts indicate that the given agreement is more political
than economic--and designed to underscore Russia's commitment to Central Asia, where the
United States has exerted increased influence since securing basing rights in several
former Soviet republics, including Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan's gas deposits are relatively
small--only about 3 billion cubic meters--and the country meanwhile must buy 1 billion
cubic meters of gas from Uzbekistan annually.
SIGNS FROM MOSCOW
On the same day that the Gazprom agreement was signed, Russian
President Vladimir Putin in his annual speech to the Federal Assembly said that the
development of relations with the former Soviet republics "remains an obvious
priority of Russian's foreign policy."
"We consider the [Commonwealth of Independent States] CIS
countries to be within the sphere of our strategic interest," Putin added.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia--beset by
its own social and economic crises--found its influence waning over Kyrgyzstan and its
Central Asian neighbors of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan.
"All the Central Asian countries came out of Russia's shadow
during the collapse of the Soviet Union," Victor Kremnuyk, deputy director of
Russia's Institute of the USA and Canada, said in a 30 April article in the Russian daily
Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
"Obviously, Russia wants to continue to maintain its influence on
these countries, but its policy was not and is not supported by any significant material
resources," Kremnuyk charged.
In addition to changing foreign policy orientations, demographics have
played a role in the decline of Russian influence in Kyrgyzstan.
In 1991, before Kyrgyzstan proclaimed its independence, the total
ethnic Russian population within Kyrgyzstan's total of approximately 5 million residents
stood at 916,000, or nearly 20 percent. By the end of the 1990s, that number had dropped
to 603,000. Ethnic Russians in Kyrgyzstan say that Moscow and Bishkek neglected to address
the extensive migration from Kyrgyzstan into Russia caused by general instability in the
region.
"I would have welcomed any political and economic initiatives from
Russia 10 or 12 years ago that would have stopped hundred of thousands of Russian-speaking
people from leaving Kyrgyzstan for good," Osh resident and ethnic Russian Alexander
Suleikin, 27, told TOL.
"Nothing was done to encourage people to stay in Kyrgyzstan,"
he charged. "I have no future in this country. As soon as I can, I will leave for
Russia, too."
Meanwhile, the United States and other Western countries have been
strengthening and widening their presence in the Russian absence. Numerous projects backed
by Western and international donors have provided a way for thousands of Kyrgyz citizens
to make a living. Thousands more study in overseas universities on U.S. grants and
scholarships.
"Those who have good command of English have easier access to
employment," Osh English teacher Rakhimova Barno told TOL.
"I quit my professional career teaching public school--since an
average teacher's salary is about 800 soms per month (approximately $20). Now I teach
English at home. I have many students. More and more parents want their children to learn
English, and they are ready to pay any amount of money if I can teach it well," Barno
said.
PLAYING BOTH SIDES
While Washington has been active in international aid and foreign
direct investment in Kyrgyzstan since the early 1990s, Moscow's concern over U.S.
influence in the region can be traced to the aftermath of the 11 September 2001 terrorist
attacks on the United States. To prepare for its anti-terrorism campaign, Washington
courted Kyrgyzstan and the other former Soviet republics, eventually receiving basing
rights from Bishkek to carry out its war in Afghanistan.
While Russia did not raise significant protest against the new U.S.
military presence in the region, it has redoubled its efforts to maintain a presence,
giving Kyrgyzstan and its neighbors the rare opportunity to play the two sides against
each other.
In addition to the U.S. military base at the capital's Manas airport,
Kyrgyzstan has allowed Russia to place military jets at the Kant airport, less than 100
kilometers from Bishkek, under the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization.
The new Gazprom contract would seem to be an additional signal of
Bishkek's increasing closeness to Moscow, but analysts say it is more likely a
representation of Kyrgyz authorities' continued attempts to play the field to attract more
solid financial gain from its potential suitors.
On 1 May, the Kyrgyz news agency AKIpress reported that U.S. Secretary
of State Colin Powell asked the U.S. Congress in April to allocate $157 million for three
Central Asian countries--Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan--in 2004. That is 15
percent more than 2003 allocations.
Powell stated at the time that Central Asia remains strategically
important for the United States.
Meanwhile, on the same day, Kyrgyz Prime Minister Tanaev said on Kyrgyz
Television that Bishkek would hesitate to enter the economic union of Russia, Belarus,
Kazakhstan, and Ukraine because "none of the economic organizations established on
the post-Soviet territory has so far been successful."
tol.cz
Transitions Online, June 2, 2003 |
