Frontrunners for Kyrgyz top job
By Malcolm Haslett
Protesters in the Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan have followed
the Georgian and Ukrainian example in mounting protests against elections which they claim
were rigged.
But in Georgia and Ukraine the opposition was united behind a single,
well-known leader - Mikhail Saakashvili in Georgia and Viktor Yuschenko in Ukraine.
But if Kyrgyzstan's President Askar Akayev were to be replaced, who
might take his place?
It is difficult to tell, because no alternative figure stands out from
the others.
Many believe the most obvious man to lead the opposition would have
been Felix Kulov, former vice-president, security minister and mayor of the capital,
Bishkek.
His charisma and influence, it was said, would unite the various
anti-Akayev factions.
The problem is that Mr Kulov is currently in prison, on charges of
embezzlement - charges which, his supporters say, were politically orchestrated by the
authorities.
So what of opposition leaders remaining free? With presidential
elections due in October, the only one so far to declare his candidacy is the man who was
prime minister until two years ago, Kurmanbek Bakiev, leader of the People's Movement of
Kyrgyzstan.
Mr Bakiev, however, is a controversial figure. He was still in power
two years ago, when an opposition demonstration in the southern district of Aksy turned
sour and police shot dead five demonstrators.
Mr Bakiev resigned soon afterwards, but some people feel his
association with the Aksy incident makes him unsuitable to represent the united
opposition.
Opposition split
Some would prefer Kyrgyzstan's leading female politician, former
Foreign Minister Roza Otunbayeva, leader of the Ata-jurt or Fatherland movement.
She is well-liked and respected abroad, but is probably not well enough
known inside Kyrgyzstan to carry the public there with her.
And she is also a woman in a traditionally patriarchal society.
A fourth candidate for opposition leader is another former Foreign
Minister, Muratbek Imanaliev, head of the Party for Justice and Progress.
He has been criticised, however, for sitting on the fence politically
and refusing to join with other opposition groups in the Union for Fair Elections.
So the opposition remains divided.
And what about a pro-Akayev successor? It is deemed possible that
President Akayev could designate a "favoured successor", as Boris Yeltsin
designated Vladimir Putin in Russia.
Or that he could transfer presidential powers to a prime minister.
Currently that is Nikolay Tanayev. But Mr Tanayev would also be a rather controversial
choice, since he is an ethnic Russian, born outside Kyrgyzstan.
The lack of any obvious successor to President Akayev, from either the
government or opposition, is one reason why many people suspect the current Kyrgyz leader
could still reverse his current position and allow his supporters to "persuade"
him into standing for a further term.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/
BBC Eurasia analyst
25 Mar 2005
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