International Crisis Group predicts trouble for and in Uzbekistan

Galima Bukharbayeva

International Crisis Group (ICG) does not rule out the possibility of new social upheavals in Uzbekistan. It urges the international community to start helping nearby countries so as to lessen their dependance on Tashkent and prepare them for the exodus of refugees from Uzbekistan.

ICS Central Asian Project Director Michael Hall said at a briefing in New York on Monday that this turn of events was a grim possibility because the Uzbek authorities had not learned the lessons of the Andijan tragedy in May 2005.

Refusing to acknowledge social motives of the events Andijan, Uzbek leaders have done absolutely nothing to make the life of the population easier.

"The continuing economic stagnation, catastrophic impoverishment of the masses, and political repressions pave the way for a new Andijan," Hall said. When and how are the only questions.

ICG urges the international community and first and foremost Central Asian countries to be ready because ramifications of another uprising in Uzbekistan may be much more serious. They may even destabilize all of the region.

By way of preparations for the worst possible turn of events in Uzbekistan, Hall suggests that assistance be rendered to the weakest countries of the region - Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan - "in fortification of their statehood."

"Their dependance on Uzbekistan in energy and transport routes must be lessened. The international community could help them build electric power plants and new roads bypassing the territory of Uzbekistan," Hall said.

It is necessary to have countries of the region feel that the international community is with them and helping. It is necessary to have them honor their commitments, say, refusing to extradite refugees back to Uzbekistan. Countries of the region should feel that they are not alone. They should not be left face to face with Tashkent's threats and blackmail.

ICG executives are convinced that it is necessary to organize refresher courses for the regional immigration services right now to improve their knowledge of the international law and prepare them for the exodus of refugees from Uzbekistan.

"I'm not against regional integration," Hall explained. "I only want all countries building up their relations on an equal footing."

ICG emphasizes that it is not calling for international isolation of Uzbekistan and that it is Uzbekistan itself that chooses isolation. In fact, Tashkent's relations with Europe and the United States have never been so bad yet.

According to Hall, Western diplomats assigned to Uzbekistan have not been able to meet with their Uzbek counterparts since May 2005.

"Western diplomats ask one another at every reception if anyone managed to meet with somebody. The answer is invariably "No," Hall said. "What dialogue are we talking about in a situation such as this?"

In the meantime, Hall is convinced that the United States, Germany, and Great Britain still cherish hopes of cooperation with Uzbekistan in the matter of the global war on international terrorism. It is precisely these world powers that prevent the EU and OSCE from taking uncompromising measures against Uzbekistan for the killing of a peaceful demonstration in Andijan on May 13, 2005.

Adoption of the so called OSCE Moscow Mechanism could become one of these measures. The matter concerns the opportunity to form an independent panel to investigate the events in Andijan regardless of Uzbekistan's own opinion.

The OSCE Moscow Mechanism was invoked only once - when official Tashkent released a statement on the attempt on the life of Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov in November 2002.

Hall said that unlike the Turkmenbashi, Islam Karimov was a man one could have dealings with. No more.

"Strange as it undoubtedly is, some circles in the West retain the hope even now that a dialogue with Karimov is possible all the same," Hall said. "That's beyond my understanding."

Speaking of the options of regime replacement in Uzbekistan, Hall mentioned all sorts of hypotheses suggested nowadays - from a palace coup to installation of a successor by Moscow.

ICG is convinced, however, that even a non-violent replacement of the regime in Uzbekistan makes destabilization a distinct possibility. Destabilization will be a corollary of a vicious power struggle in Uzbekistan in the wake of Karimov's resignation. Should it really come to pass, the international community and countries of the region had better be prepared for nearly everything

Ferghana.Ru news agency, ,28.02.2006